By Ayuba Doekyil
This morning I came across a statement credited to the presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga.
In the release, he said former President Goodluck Jonathan is welcome to join the 2027 presidential race, but Nigerians will not forget his failures. That line struck me. It sounded less like a welcome and more like a reminder, or even a warning.
I do not personally support Jonathan contesting again. He has already earned a rare global recognition no other Nigerian ex-president has enjoyed.
Since leaving office in 2015, he has been celebrated across Africa and beyond as a statesman and peace negotiator.
For me, that is a legacy worth preserving. Returning to the turbulent waters of Nigerian politics could stain it.
But facts are facts. Jonathan remains a factor in Nigerian politics.
The Tinubu-led administration is facing growing criticism, especially from the North where insecurity, economic hardship, and feelings of exclusion are biting hard. If Jonathan were to enter the race, it is not certain he would win, but he would definitely shake the table.
Let us consider the numbers. In 2011, Jonathan won about 22 million votes, sweeping the South-South, South-East, and much of the North-Central. Even in the core North, he managed significant figures, though Buhari dominated there.
In 2015, when he lost, he still polled 12.8 million votes against Buhari’s 15.4 million. That’s not a small base.
Fast forward to today...the South-South still sees him as their own, and with zoning sentiments, he would be eligible for only one term, after which power swings back to the North, a political sweetener for northern elites.
Of course, the dynamics have changed. Peter Obi has carved out a stronghold in the South-East and part of the North-Central, while Tinubu is holding firmly to the South-West. This means Jonathan’s return could split the southern votes three ways, a scenario that might either weaken or indirectly strengthen Tinubu, depending on alliances.
What is clear is that Jonathan is still loved by many Nigerians, perhaps even more than Tinubu, because his presidency is now remembered with nostalgia by those grappling with today’s economic realities. Petrol at N145 in 2015 now costs over N900. The naira, once about N197 to the dollar when Jonathan left office, now trades at nearly N1,500. These figures alone fuel comparisons.
So, is the presidency afraid of Jonathan?
Maybe not openly. But if they weren’t worried, there would be no need for Onanuga’s quick reminder of “failures.” Nigerian politics is about perception, and the fact that Jonathan’s name still commands debates shows he is not out of the game.
As for me, I think Jonathan should stay where history has already placed him, as a respected African statesman.
But I cannot ignore the possibility that if he steps back into the arena, he will be a threat, not just to Tinubu, but to anyone standing in his way.
Ayuba Doekyil is an independent Journalist , social and political commentator.
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